Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.469617 0.546493 0.631580 0.732686 0.849509 0.980210 1.137505
2025-03-02 0.336374 0.437239 0.561226 0.724603 0.934015 1.193239 1.538378
2025-03-09 0.267210 0.375949 0.519998 0.724278 1.006048 1.380565 1.915816
2025-03-16 0.213377 0.320435 0.471247 0.698388 1.031025 1.499495 2.208626
2025-03-23 0.193711 0.307560 0.476560 0.744459 1.157213 1.767646 2.737549
2025-03-30 0.162743 0.271916 0.441924 0.724308 1.179948 1.884393 3.053908
2025-04-06 0.137435 0.240680 0.408697 0.699997 1.190333 1.979786 3.343967
2025-04-13 0.117387 0.214776 0.379891 0.677794 1.199290 2.070988 3.634010
2025-04-20 0.105555 0.201122 0.369403 0.684386 1.256053 2.245116 4.079782
2025-04-27 0.099807 0.197462 0.375563 0.720457 1.367630 2.523456 4.735461
2025-05-04 0.092718 0.190185 0.374024 0.741810 1.454274 2.765839 5.351681
2025-05-11 0.084832 0.180181 0.365952 0.749431 1.515381 2.966968 5.911595
2025-05-18 0.076579 0.168522 0.353656 0.748164 1.560947 3.147207 6.458974
2025-05-25 0.068673 0.156508 0.339207 0.740900 1.594085 3.307884 6.988274
2025-06-01 0.062416 0.147112 0.328856 0.740613 1.641030 3.500176 7.601571
2025-06-08 0.054767 0.133468 0.307644 0.714156 1.629088 3.570247 7.967728
2025-06-15 0.053636 0.134697 0.319141 0.761240 1.782283 4.001864 9.150707
2025-06-22 0.047774 0.123795 0.301850 0.740646 1.781628 4.102402 9.620047
2025-06-29 0.042342 0.113150 0.283763 0.715801 1.768004 4.172320 10.027379
2025-07-06 0.037682 0.103766 0.267464 0.693109 1.756539 4.245370 10.448982
2025-07-13 0.035149 0.099565 0.263327 0.699846 1.816837 4.490223 11.300443
2025-07-20 0.034361 0.099937 0.270743 0.736711 1.955923 4.935420 12.680575
2025-07-27 0.032858 0.098125 0.272289 0.758532 2.059357 5.304924 13.913193